Super Soccer

A conceptually different approach is the one proposed by the American mathematician John L. Kelly, because it takes into account the probabilities of each outcome and, at least from a theoretical point of view, the system is consistent.

Percentage is the bet amount as% of banking which has the player, and is calculated from the estimated probability of the event and share it. Since you bet a fraction of the total money available, the method avoids dramatic losses Kelly and, unlike the Martingale, tends to reduce the amount to bet when you lose and enlarge when you win, which is equivalent to a truly economic planning rational.

The problem of the Kelly formula is that the odds must be on the side of the bettor, ie the player must necessarily be able to determine the mathematical probability of an event more accurately than the bookmaker. If the player overestimates the probability, then lose money. On the contrary, if he underestimates the odds, win money but to get the most performance possible.

Beyond the purely mathematical, difficult in practice, Kelly's formula shows that, ideally, you should not bet a higher percentage than the probability of the event, irrespective of the amount of same. In short, if you choose an event to share two, not wager a fraction of their money. For starters, the Martingale part of the assumption that the bettor has an unlimited amount of money when making your bets. In practice this is impossible, and the effectiveness of the method becomes an illusion.